Viktor Orbán has opposed the EU majority on many critical issues while promoting his brand of illiberal democracy. With the rise of Trump, he has intensified his rhetoric, diverging from the current consensus to promote a neo-nationalist, intolerant and populist Europe. Hungary’s government is now openly behaving like the enemy within, not least when it comes to Russia.
As a result, many are calling for Hungary to be expelled from the EU, rightly arguing that, for critical questions, Hungary shouldn’t have a seat at the table, let alone a vote or veto. Difficult choices must be made, and the likes of Orbán will hinder progress and ambition, and Trump might use Hungary as his Trojan Horse.
But is it right to punish populations for the misdeeds of leaders? And will other member states even consider it? In any case, expelling a country is far easier said than done. There are no legal provisions for this, and Hungary shows no willingness to leave. So, realistically, exit is improbable. Moreover, those calling for draconian action now, such as withdrawing voting rights, based on Orbán’s blockage of progress in European integration, fail to show how such reactions would be justified under current EU law – political consensus is not a legal obligation.
However, other member states can decide what should be done in parallel to the usual EU funding and processes, e.g. through a supragovernmental avantgarde, to exclude those unwilling to take part, removing their ability to block progress.
Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive and Chief Economist at the European Policy Centre.
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