The European Policy Centre invites you to this online Elections Monitor to assess the outcome and implications of Portugal’s snap parliamentary elections on 18 May 2025.
The election follows the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s right-wing minority government after a no-confidence vote, marking Portugal’s third general election in just over three years. In the run-up to the vote, the Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Montenegro, holds a narrow lead over the Socialist Party (PS) led by Pedro Nuno Santos, according to recent polls. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party, despite a recent dip in support amid internal scandals, remains a significant force (and a potential kingmaker) in the post-election coalition talks.
Will the Portuguese follow the trend seen in other European countries and usher the far-right into government? Will the Socialists manage to make a comeback?
A traditionally pro-European Union country, Portugal finds itself at a crossroads. The outcome of the 18 May vote will determine whether the country stays on a centrist, pro-EU path or shifts toward a more fragmented and potentially volatile coalition dynamic.
Participation is open to EPC members only, the media, and EU officials