EPC FLASH ANALYSIS

Ukraine’s partners must commit to Russia’s defeat

Ukraine / EPC FLASH ANALYSIS
Lev Zinchenko

Date: 17/10/2024

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, presented the much anticipated Victory Plan to the Ukrainian Parliament on 16 October. With Ukraine under permanent Russian attacks, and with waning Western support, a looming US election, he called on his allies to take urgent steps to bolster Kyiv, to secure a just peace to end the war with Russia.

While some parts of the plan remain classified, Zelenskyy revealed five actionable points: an immediate formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, strengthening Ukraine’s defence, a deterrence strategy, boosting strategic economic potential, and shaping the post-war security architecture. The underlying goal is to cripple Russia’s ability to sustain its war of aggression, not just against Ukraine, but against Europe as a whole. Yet, as Zelenskyy pointed out "the plan’s implementation depends solely on Kyiv’s partners, and not Russia."

Though some elements of the plan have already been discussed in European capitals and Washington, it introduces new strategic objectives to secure Ukraine's victory. A critical aspect is the emphasis placed on practical cooperation between Ukraine, NATO, and its partners. It goes beyond theoretical proposals, addressing security needs while also considering the long-term development of defence capabilities within the Western security framework. An upcoming meeting at NATO headquarters later this week is an important occasion for Ukraine to persuade the partners to take action on the proposed plan.

Zelensky also stressed the need to enhance Ukraine’s ability to neutralise Russian forces both within Ukraine and, if necessary, inside Russia. Peace through strength is the only way to force Russia to retreat and deter further aggression. Russia only advances when it senses a lack of consequences—this must change, and the Victory Plan is designed to ensure that. One option under consideration is the stationing of a non-nuclear deterrence package in Ukraine, which would solidify the country’s security. However, this would require revisiting current security assurances and transforming them into legally binding treaties with real guarantees. The idea is to ensure that Ukraine gets iron-clad security guarantees from its allies and is well armed to prevent Russia from using any pause in the fighting to rearm and then attack again.

A further crucial dimension of the plan is its vision for reshaping the Western security architecture, with Ukraine playing a central role. If Russia’s invasion forced the West to rethink its strategy, Ukraine is now positioned as a key driver in modernising and strengthening that architecture. The final point of the plan proposes that, in time, Ukrainian forces replace US military contingents in Europe as a part of the Alliance. While this is an ambitious goal, Ukraine’s armed forces are by far the most experienced and battle-tested in Europe, making them well-equipped to safeguard the continent’s security.

Ultimately, the Victory Plan zeroes in on the crucial steps required to secure a lasting and just peace for Ukraine. However, the extent to which it will be taken seriously or adopted by Kyiv’s allies remains to be seen. The stakes are high because the situation on the battlefield is increasingly precarious. Ukraine’s partners must commit to the defeat of Russia – not only because showing weakness only encourages the Kremlin, as has been proven time and time again, but also because European security is directly linked to Ukraine’s security.

Lev Zinchenko is a Programme Assistant in the Europe in the World Programme.

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Ukraine’s partners must commit to Russia’s defeat

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Ukraine’s partners must commit to Russia’s defeat

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