The UK has a history of flip-flopping on Europe. The new government has no well-prepared post-Brexit programme. Its declared intention to “reset” the country’s relations with the EU has little content and will hardly contribute to the overriding national need to boost economic growth. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s hostility to reintegration condemns his ministers to tinkering at the edges of Boris Johnson’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement — a timeconsuming, costly and ultimately frustrating exercise.
The EU, for its part, is not ready to welcome the UK back to the fold. It has other priorities, not least Ukraine and its own efforts to raise productivity. Nonetheless, both sides stand to benefit economically were the UK to re-enter a customs union and the single market. The departure of British representatives from EU politics and law-making leaves a gap. Britain is needed to make a significant contribution to the EU’s fast developing common security and defence policy.
Andrew Duff speculates that Starmer will eventually follow the example of previous prime ministers and make a U-turn on Europe. Economic facts and geopolitical necessity must outweigh British nationalism. Ukraine’s passage towards the EU will revive interest in a European vocation for the UK. The return of Donald Trump to the White House forces Britain to recalibrate its values and interests.
The paper outlines the probable terms of renewed British membership and describes a possible accession process, including another referendum following the next general election.1 But the UK needs to drop its traditional opposition to the deepening of European integration and the strengthening of governance at the EU level. The UK could then take a stable and enduring place among the leaders of Europe.
Read the full paper here.