Provoked by Putin, the EU is having to rapidly revise its strategy for the future of Europe. Enlargement, long dormant, is now a top geopolitical priority. Defence has become a principal driver of European integration.
This Discussion Paper examines how the two themes of widening and deepening the Union are interconnected. Ursula von der Leyen’s second Commission is preparing pre-enlargement reforms of EU common policies and decision-making processes. Despite disagreements among member states and nationalist political parties, the presumption of enlargement and the necessity of self-defence leaves the EU little choice but to continue on its federative path. No institution will escape the imperative of reform. Negotiations to expand the size and compass of the EU budget will be particularly difficult. Treaty change is inevitable — and should be well prepared by an expert reflection group. Faced with accelerating European unity, the UK will, sooner than expected, have to confront the issue of EU membership.
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