The massive student-led protests held in Belgrade on 15 March may prove a landmark event in Serbia’s recent history. They also test the EU’s ongoing engagement with the country – a candidate for accession and a major regional player. While it is mainly up to Serbia’s opposition to provide a political alternative, the EU must become firmer and more supportive on Serbia’s transition towards institutional order based on the principles of democracy and the rule of law.
The mass gathering is a culmination of months of country-wide protests sparked by the collapse of Novi Sad railway station’s canopy on 1 November 2024, leading to 15 deaths. They are also a reaction to the poor response of the government and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić, at its helm since 2012, to this tragedy, marked by obfuscation, repression and inaction. Yet, while this incident might have triggered the current social upheaval, the protests are symptomatic of wider political polarisation over corruption scandals, the lack of political accountability, absence of media pluralism and the government’s habit of taking unpopular decisions.
According to Serbia’s police, 107,000 protesters gathered in Belgrade, although independent sources claim that the actual number was at least two to three times higher. The peaceful protests were shattered by a shockwave, allegedly caused by a sonic weapon, breaking the 15 minutes of silence held in remembrance of the casualties of the canopy accident. A lack of clarity around what actually caused the disturbance at the protest and who was responsible has further fuelled public discontent.
The protests demonstrate the deep crisis of political legitimacy in Serbia, which can no longer be ignored at home or abroad. There is widespread support of the students and protesters, as well as signs of dissenting views within the ruling coalition itself. Against this backdrop, Vučić is faced with growing pressure to concede to a provisional government, which would pave the way for free and fair elections in the future. Meanwhile, the opposition remains fragmented and unable to channel the social upheaval into political action, owing to both years of pressure from the regime and pro-government media, as well as a lack of sufficient leadership and organisation.
The EU and member states have a long track record of being ‘loudly silent’ about the political situation in Serbia. The EU has often turned a blind eye to the deterioration of the country’s democratic standards for the sake of stability and to win Vučić’s cooperation, for example, in the resolution of the Belgrade-Pristina dispute, to distance Serbia from the Kremlin, and to supply the European economy with critical materials such as lithium. Such a ‘geopolitical’ approach towards a candidate country is misguided, especially when it increases longstanding polarisation which can easily translate into internal and regional instability. Moreover, Brussels’s current attitude is weakening EU influence in the region. As the protests gain momentum, Serbian citizens perceive the Union as less relevant than in the past, as evidenced by the low public support for Serbia’s EU accession and the absence of EU flags during the protests.
Serbia’s opposition must step up and translate people’s discontent into a clear political vision, in collaboration with the student movement, other stakeholders involved in the protests, and potentially with the dissenting voices in the ruling coalition. This requires uniting around a shared set of principles, aiming to peacefully resolve the current political crisis and restore people’s trust in public institutions. To be on the right side of history, the EU should end its ‘loud silence’ about the current state of affairs in Serbia. It should recognise that ‘stabilocracy’ does not work, especially not in the long run, and that the best way to avoid regional instability is to stay true to its democratic values and insist that they are also upheld in Serbia and other aspiring member states.
Stefan Šipka is Head of Sustainable Prosperity for Europe programme at the European Policy Centre
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