Since applying for EU membership in February 2022, Ukraine has maintained intensive activity in its European integration process – a strategic priority for the country. Amid Russia’s ongoing war of attrition, progress toward membership has been playing a crucial role in boosting national morale and resilience and fostering unity within Ukrainian society. EU accession is an important security guarantee for Ukraine’s future. Progress in negotiations at this critical juncture is a way for the EU to show Washington it is serious about its geopolitical ambitions.
What’s ahead in 2025
Following the official launch of accession negotiations at the first EU-Ukraine Intergovernmental Conference in June 2024, Ukraine has been undergoing the legislative screening process. The opening of the first negotiating cluster on the Fundamentals is imminent, with the Internal Market and External Relations clusters expected to be opened shortly thereafter. While there is a strong momentum to make progress during the 2025 Polish and Danish Presidencies, there remains a risk of Hungary derailing the process. If the EU is to have a credible enlargement process, it cannot allow this to happen and must be ready to play hardball. If necessary, Article 7 of the EU Treaty should be used. This is the most serious political sanction on a member country, as it involves suspending its right to vote on EU decisions.
Fundamentals is a key cluster for Ukraine’s accession
The Fundamentals cluster will be the most important and challenging for Ukraine. The negotiating framework includes a set of safeguards aimed at ensuring the effective implementation of fundamental reforms and preventing their backsliding. It will be opened first and closed last. Progress here will determine the overall pace of negotiations. The European Commission will be closely monitoring Kyiv’s efforts, with particular emphasis on judicial reform and anti-corruption policies.
Anti-corruption measures will be integrated into all negotiating chapters and their closure is subject to full implementation (“anti-corruption mainstreaming”). The framework also has a specific reference to anti-corruption law enforcement, including related to Ukraine’s track record of investigations and convictions. Moreover, negotiations may be suspended in the case of a “serious and persistent breach” of EU values.
Crucially, the negotiating framework also requires Ukrainian civil society to play a major role in the preparation of the roadmaps for the Fundamentals cluster through inclusive and transparent consultations. Civil society has a robust track record of pushing reform. Its independence and well-established expertise across many areas is trusted by European institutions.
Fulfilling the opening criteria for the Fundamentals cluster
To fulfil the opening benchmarks and recommendations, Ukraine had to develop three roadmaps (the rule of law, public administration reform and the functioning of democratic institutions). The first EU-Ukraine Intergovernmental Conference also recommended that Kyiv submit an Action Plan on the protection of the rights of national minorities, with a focus on combating discrimination and hate speech and increasing the level of use of minority languages. This is important for some member states, particularly Hungary, which threatens to block the process without it. Crucially, it is being developed incorporating recommendations from national minority NGOs.
The roadmaps are now being finalised, with Kyiv addressing feedback and legislation gaps flagged in the EU’s screening report:
- The rule of law roadmap outlines key strategic steps in the judicial system, anti-corruption efforts, human rights protection, and security. It comprises more than 470 measures to improve the system for selecting judges and prosecutors; establishing an administrative court to handle disputes with central authorities; digitalising the judicial system; strengthening accountability for corruption-related crimes, and developing the new Anti-Corruption Strategy for 2026–2030.
- The roadmap on the functioning of democratic institutions includes amendments to the electoral legislation to ensure a transparent electoral process in the post-war period; measures to enhance the transparency of the Parliament, etc.
- The roadmap for public administration reform envisages the development of strategies for reforming public administration and public finance management systems for 2026-2030.
Wartime challenges
Accession negotiations with a candidate at war is unprecedented and a challenge for both Ukraine and the EU. Yet Ukraine has pursued the process with steadfast determination. The government and Parliament have continued to operate, although with security-related limitations. Furthermore, Kyiv is not starting from scratch. Over the past decade, Ukraine has already achieved a certain level of preparedness across various areas due to the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. For example, Ukraine has established operational anti-corruption bodies, although its capacity and track record require further strengthening.
While Ukraine’s government remains operational, a key challenge is the weakening capacity of the public administration due to staff shortages, insufficient funding, and a decline in relevant expertise. To advance EU accession and post-war recovery, strengthening the institutional capacity of key authorities and implementing comprehensive public administration reform must be a priority.
Engaging civil society expertise could help to enhance the quality of the negotiation process and ensure the transparency and inclusiveness of European integration. For this, 36 working groups to prepare Ukraine's negotiating positions on the relevant sections of the EU acquis were established, with civil society’s participation.
The negotiating framework requires unanimous decisions by member states in the Council for approving screening reports under each cluster, agreeing on benchmarks, and opening clusters. Ukraine needs to consolidate all member states’ support for its accession and to address their security, economic and other concerns, as well as cooperate with other EU candidate countries.
As this is an exceptional accession process, given Ukraine’s strategic importance to European security, both Ukraine and the EU will need to double down on efforts to galvanise political support among member states. This must include EU-wide information campaigns that have a whole-of-society approach, that explains not only the benefits of Ukraine’s membership but also the potential security and instability challenges that Europe may face without it.
Rule of law and democratic institutions under martial law
Martial law has been in place since the start of the war, which has made the functioning of democratic institutions more challenging. This includes a restricted constitutional guarantee of freedom of assembly, prohibition of elections, constrained democratic control and oversight, lower transparency of government procedures, and suspension of competitions for civil service positions. While a higher degree of centralisation of decision-making is expected in wartime for efficiency and security reasons, some limitations and practices under martial law are viewed as problematic, potentially leading to an excessive centralisation of power, limited accountability of authorities, and corruption risks.
The EU and Ukrainian civil society have cautioned Kyiv about the growing practice of establishing direct control over local communities through military administrations (especially in the territories far from the frontline), cases of pressure on the ability of the opposition to perform its function including travel restrictions, and restrictions on media. The launch of the state-funded United News TV marathon uniting the country's leading broadcasters has led to the centralisation of the media landscape, decreasing media pluralism.
Corruption allegations against the Ministry of Defence and the dispute over the leadership of the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA), the operator of the state defence budget, risk undermining the effectiveness and international confidence in the defence procurement system in Ukraine and requires careful investigations by anti-corruption bodies. Recent sanctions on former president and opposition politician Petro Poroshenko have also caused concern.
Ahead of the start of accession negotiations, the EU's stance on martial law restrictions is becoming tougher, emphasising the need “to ensure democratic consolidation despite these limitations”. Ukraine has partially lifted some restrictions – including restoring public access to asset declarations of officials, adopting laws on local democracy (broadening opportunities for citizens’ engagement in decision-making processes in their communities even under martial law), and granting more autonomy for the public broadcaster Suspilne channel (enabling it to launch its own broadcasting). However, it must further reassess the remaining restrictions and try to further reduce them.
Ukraine has been strongly recommended to demonstrate progress in "gradually restoring a transparent, pluralistic, and independent media landscape," advancing decentralisation reform, addressing shortcomings in the financing of political parties, and fostering political dialogue with the opposition and civil society already during martial law. It must also prepare a plan to restore all constitutional guarantees following the lifting of martial law.
Safeguards for Ukraine’s democratic consolidation
There are two major safeguards to address the concerns about changes under martial law undermining Ukraine’s democracy consolidation. First, Ukrainian society remains firmly committed to democratic values and EU integration.
The trend toward centralisation of power has not gone unnoticed by Ukrainians. Ukrainian civil society and European partners should continue to closely monitor and assess changes in the balance of power and interaction between the state and local governments, parliament, law enforcement, and anti-corruption bodies, as well as the judicial system, and make suggestions for the relevant roadmaps under the Fundamentals cluster.
Second, the merit-based nature of EU accession and the strong conditionality of EU support are key mechanisms for anchoring and further advancing democratic and structural transformations in Ukraine. However, unnecessary delays in the process risk destabilising the internal situation in wartime Ukraine.
The conditionality of financial assistance and the merit-based accession process are strongly incorporated in the EU’s Ukraine Facility instrument and negotiating framework. Both reinforce each other and place a strong emphasis on the fundamental rule of law and anti-corruption reforms.
A win-win accession
EU accession is an important security guarantee for Ukraine’s future. Given that membership is an existential goal for Ukraine, it should also become a national project, with all of Ukrainian society engaged and informed. Meanwhile, the EU should provide all the necessary support to Ukraine’s accession while ensuring all incentives and safeguards are in place.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s membership will be a win-win for both sides. At a time when the US’s future role on the continent is under question, Ukraine’s large and capable armed forces can play an important role in enhancing European security and defence, while its abundance of critical materials will boost Europe’s economic security. Ukraine’s agricultural sector would also allow the EU to strengthen its role as a guarantor of global food security.
Amanda Paul is Deputy Head of Europe in the World Programme and Senior Policy Analyst
Svitlana Taran is a policy analyst in the Europe in the World Programme
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