To decouple or not to decouple: The EU’s Moldova-Ukraine Dilemma.
While the EU proclaims enlargement as a geopolitical imperative, Ukraine and Moldova are yet to open the first cluster of membership negotiations—the ‘Fundamentals’—despite meeting their criteria. Hungary’s veto of Ukraine has paralysed the process. Although Budapest is not vetoing Moldova, the bids have been synchronised since both countries became candidates, and reforms have advanced in lockstep.
Despite Moldova’s solidarity with Ukraine, Chișinău is keen to see membership negotiations begin before its parliamentary elections in September 2025. Meanwhile, Russia is waging a large-scale hybrid war, including a concerted anti-EU disinformation campaign. Opening the first cluster could help counter this, signalling that the EU remains committed to Moldova’s membership. However, at the first EU-Moldova Summit on 4 July, while the EU increased economic support and proposed integrating Moldova into the EU (mobile phone) roaming area from 2026, it did not confirm when the ‘Fundamentals’ might be opened.
The EU is loath to succumb to Hungarian blackmail and decouple the countries. Amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this risks fostering a sense of abandonment at a time when Ukrainians already feel deserted by Washington. While Moldovans recognise that their EU candidate status, granted as a consequence of Ukraine’s suffering, the EU’s current approach risks playing into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands. While the Danish EU Presidency is discussing ways to maximise pressure on Hungary, doing so will be challenging in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections in April 2026, with Ukraine’s EU membership now a part of the national debate. Stripping Budapest of its voting rights through Article 7 would solve the problem, but this requires unanimity and strong backing from major players such as France and Germany. If that proves unfeasible, the EU may have little choice but to move ahead with Moldova, rather than risk the country falling under Russian influence, an outcome that would further undermine Europe’s security and stability, including that of Ukraine.
Amanda Paul is a Senior Policy Analyst and Deputy Head of the Europe in the World Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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