Whatever the outcome of the US mid-term elections, one certainty remains: Donald Trump will continue to be a source of profound uncertainty. Even if Republicans lose both houses of Congress, predicting what Trump can and will do next is almost impossible.
Electoral defeat would impose constraints but could make him more dangerous. Internationally, aggression and disruption will continue. He will seek scapegoats, at home and abroad, although economic realities might limit further confrontation. Europe and Ukraine must prepare for the possibility of an accommodation with Russia, building on the diesel deal.
Economic recovery is unlikely. Instead, expect more debt-financed attempts to buy political support. He will need to appease Republicans to shore up his power. A lame duck president unwilling to relinquish power, he is likely to deny defeat and potentially prepare further assaults on American democracy.
Electoral defeat will not necessarily weaken the global illiberal movement. Those driving its ideological agenda will increasingly prepare for life after Trump, seeking to entrench their influence and ensure illiberalism survives beyond his presidency.
Europe must prepare for the worst: continued volatility, coercion and threats to democracy. But it must also start planning for a world after Trump, recognising that his departure will not automatically restore the old order.
Preparation must not become fatalism. Electoral defeats of illiberal forces demonstrate that democratic agency remains real. Europe should celebrate these victories without complacency, accelerating democratic renewal and strengthening its capacity to act.
Trump’s uncertainty is Europe’s challenge. But his weakness is also an opportunity.
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