The Progress Illusion in the State of the Union
Ursula von der Leyen’s 2025 State of the Union Address unfolded against a dramatic backdrop: renewed attacks on Ukraine, Russian incursions into Polish airspace, and the bombing in Doha. The gravity of the moment was clear. She sought to reassert leadership by focusing on geopolitics, defence, competitiveness, and support for Ukraine. The narrative was sober and compelling, yet her powers and ambitions remain limited.
For instance, von der Leyen expressed support for giving the European Parliament the right of initiative and for extending qualified majority voting in foreign policy. Yet although time if of the essence, she did not set out concrete proposals on how to reform the EU’s internal operating system in anticipation of a Union of more than 30 members.
She also invoked European unity. Yet the reality is more complex: divisions persist not only across multiple individual issues but also in principle, with anti-democratic forces on the rise and illiberal governments entrenched.
The danger for the future is twofold. First, a widening rhetoric-action gap, in which soaring speeches and declarations are not followed up with difficult decisions and sustained implementation. Second, the EU does take steps forward, but not on the scale or with the scope needed to match the magnitude of today’s geopolitical and internal challenges. For instance, an inadequate new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) or tinkering rather than a fundamental shift in mind-set on competitiveness, risk creating an illusion of progress. By mistaking incremental moves for transformation, the Union and its members risks leaving themselves dangerously unprepared for the future.
Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive and Chief Economist at the European Policy Centre.
Janis A. Emmanouilidis is Director of Studies at the European Policy Centre
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